China’s top leaders have pledged to loosen monetary policy and provide more support for the slowing economy, while Premier Li Qiang swiped at threats of higher tariffs on Chinese exports, saying they hinder global growth.
Shares in Hong Kong jumped Monday after state media released a report on the meeting by the ruling Communist Party’s Politburo that said leaders would “implement more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies.”
The shift to “moderately loose” from the “prudent” monetary policies of the past 14 years was taken as a significant shift by market players, unleashing a spate of buying that pushed the Hang Seng index up 2.8%.
“This marks a significant recalibration in their approach, aiming to cushion the anticipated economic shocks” (from higher tariffs), Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a commentary.
Several months ago, the Chinese central bank and other regulators began rolling out various policies aimed at encouraging businesses and households to spend more money. Overall, Monday’s statement mostly reiterated the same broad promises as usual.
“The readout leaves little doubt that the shift toward a more supportive policy stance that began in September is still alive and well,” Julian Evans-Pritchard said in a report. He noted that the last such shift was in late 2008, during the global financial crisis, and that it may be followed by faster interest rate cuts in the coming year.
Monday’s meeting has set the tone for an annual economic planning meeting later in the week that will reaffirm policies for the coming year.
China’s economy has growing a bit more slowly than the official target for a 5% expansion in annual terms this year, and the property market is still in the doldrums. Consumer spending remains subdued, having never fully recovered after the COVID-19 pandemic, and the statement from the Politburo meeting promised a “combination punch” of government spending and easier credit to help boost consumption.
Consumer inflation in November was a lower-than-expected 0.2%, the government reported Monday, down from 0.3% the month before mainly due to lower food prices. That leaves ample room for interest rate cuts, analysts said.
With youth unemployment still relatively high and many households feeling the pinch of lower housing prices and unstable jobs, the statement called for improving the “people’s sense of gain, happiness and security.”
“We must do a good job in people’s livelihood protection and security and stability the ensure the stability of the overall social situation,” it said.
Also Monday, Li, who as premier has the traditional role of overseeing the economy, met with heads of the World Bank and other big international financial organizations.
Li did not refer to the United States by name, but took aim at countries that restrict trade through higher tariffs and other measures, in a veiled slam at Washington at a time when the U.S. has been tightening controls on exports of advanced technology, while President-elect Donald Trump is threatening to sharply hike import duties on Chinese products.
