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Treasurys Dip As Rate Cut Seems Unlikely

  Business  -   POSTED: 2007/10/10 13:02

Treasury prices fell Wednesday amid a growing consensus in the bond market that the Federal Reserve won't cut rates this month. Minutes from the Fed's September monetary policy meeting, released Tuesday, showed Fed officials to be unusually uncertain about the economy and unwilling to state whether there is greater risk or rising inflation or slowing growth. The Fed's elevated uncertainty convinced the Treasury market that it had gone too far in pricing in an October rate cut in prior weeks.

"The market is virtually eliminating any Fed move on Oct. 31, due to the Fed minutes," said Tom di Galoma, fixed income analyst at Jefferies & Co. "This has the bears in control." The view that the Fed is on hold sparked heavy overseas selling of Treasurys and Japanese government bonds that continued into the U.S. session.

The stock market had its own interpretation of the Fed minutes, zeroing in on the fact that Fed policy makers were very worried about the rapid deterioration of the credit markets last summer. The Fed cut rates by a half percentage point at its Sept. 18 meeting and equities investors appear to think the bank could order another rate cut at its October meeting. Stocks were a bit lower Wednesday, after rallying sharply Tuesday on the minutes.


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