A war next door in Ukraine.Migration pressure at borders. Russian sabotage across the region. Doubts about the U.S. commitment to Europe’s security.

In Poland’s presidential election Sunday, security looms large. So do questions about the country’s strength as a democracy and its place in the European Union. One of the new president’s most important tasks will be maintaining strong ties with the United States, widely seen as essential to the survival of a country in an increasingly volatile neighborhood.

Voters in this Central European nation of 38 million people will cast ballots to replace conservative incumbent Andrzej Duda, whose second and final five-year term ends in August.

With 13 candidates, a decisive first-round victory is unlikely. Some have appeared unserious or extreme, with a couple expressing openly pro-Putin or antisemitic views. A televised debate this week dragged on for nearly four hours. There are calls to raise the threshold to qualify for the race.

A runoff on June 1 is widely expected, with polls pointing to a likely showdown between Rafał Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw, and Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian backed by the Law and Justice party, which governed Poland from 2015 to 2023. Poland’s geography gives the election added importance. Bordering Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave, Belarus and war-torn Ukraine — as well as several Western allies — Poland occupies a critical position along NATO’s eastern flank and serves as a key logistics hub for military aid to Ukraine.

There are growing fears that if Russia prevails in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it could target other countries that freed themselves from Moscow’s control some 35 years ago. Against that backdrop, the election will shape Warsaw’s foreign policy at a moment of mounting strain on trans-Atlantic unity and European defense.

Both leading candidates support continued U.S. military engagement in Europe. Trzaskowski puts greater emphasis on deepening ties with the European Union, while Nawrocki is more skeptical of Brussels and promotes a nationalist agenda.

When Law and Justice held power, it repeatedly clashed with EU institutions over judicial independence, media freedom and migration. While Poland is a parliamentary democracy, the presidency wields significant influence. The president serves as commander-in-chief of the armed forces, holds veto power, shapes foreign policy and plays a symbolic role in national discourse.

Under Duda, the office largely advanced the conservative agenda of Law and Justice. Since Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist coalition came to power in late 2023, Duda has blocked key reforms aimed at restoring judicial independence and repairing relations with the EU.